"Hams who see emergency communications over the Internet as the future
of traffic handling might want to rethink their position. This, if a
new report that predicts that Internet usage could outstrip network
capacity worldwide in a couple of years proves to be as accurate as it
seems to be. Amateur Radio Newsline's Bruce Tennant, K6PZW, has the
details:
--
The study was conducted by the advisory firm Nemertes Research. The
report is the first to assess the Internet infrastructure and current
model as well as projected traffic patterns independent of one another.
And it says that the Internet access infrastructure, specifically in
North America, will cease to be adequate for supporting demand within
the next three to five years.
But that's not all. The Nemertes report says that the cost required to
make capacity meet demand is in the area of $42 billion to $55 billion
in the United States. This would primarily be spent on broadband
access capacity. The firm says that figure is 60 to 70 percent beyond
the $72 billion service providers are planning to invest.
Even bigger is the required investment globally to keep data flowing
freely
across the Internet. It's is estimated at $137 billion, again
primarily in broadband access."
If the reports authors are correct, Internet users could increasingly
encounter Internet brownouts or other interruptions to their
applications they use online. For example, it may take more than one
attempt to confirm an online purchase or it may take longer to download
the latest video from a site like YouTube. And for hams trying to
communicate using radio to Voice over Internet Protocol technology it
could mean a major slowdown in message delivery speed. And when lives
are at stake, such a roadblock would be intolerable."
For the Amateur Radio Newsline, I'm Bruce Tennant, K6PZW, in Los
Angeles.
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